A Separation Analysis for Continuous Descent Operations Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

A method of separation analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation strategy is proposed in order to facilitate implementation of Continuous Descent Operations(CDO)in China.A vertical profile generation model is designed for CDO based on principles of four-dimensional aircraft trajectories optimized by Flight Management System(FMS).The backward integration strategy and fourth order Runge-Kutta method are used to calculate the vertical profile.Uncertain factors including wind,aircraft speed,and aircraft mass are taken into consideration to carry out the separation analysis,and an evaluation for control transfer separation is developed by applying Monte Carlo simulation strategy.Take arrival aircrafts metering at ATAGA entry fix and landing on Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as a case study,the result indicate that without any interruptions from air traffic controllers or pilots,the current transfer separation(30 km)can meet the requirements of operations.The separation between aircrafts at the Initial Approach Fix(IAF)is following a normal distribution with the mean of 15.1 km and standard variance of 1.12.The probability of the separation more than 12 km is 99.78%.The results verify effectiveness of the CDO implementation under current transfer separation.